Pelissero: Make no mistake, Vikings enter season as underdogs in division
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NEW ORLEANS -- Three points. Thirty-three yards. One man in the huddle. One late, fluttering pass into the arms of Tracy Porter.
By any measure, the Minnesota Vikings were a breath away from the Super Bowl on Jan. 24.
And when they line up for Thursday's season opener in New Orleans -- against the same Saints team, in the same building where their championship hopes died in overtime -- the Vikings will look much the same as they did 7½ months ago, too.
Something has happened since then, though.
Right or wrong, the two-time defending division champions have lost their hold on the title of Team to Beat in the NFC North.
Last week, the Bodog Sportsbook put the Vikings' division title odds at 7-to-5 -- and the Green Bay Packers' at 1-to-1.
The message is similar in NFL circles. It's tough to find anyone around the league who's willing to bet on the Vikings recapturing last season's magic, or even recapturing the division crown.
"The Vikings obviously went the distance here in the conference last year," an AFC personnel director said, "but I think the Packers are poised to make a good run."
The first concern scouts bring up about these Vikings is quarterback Brett Favre's ability to put together another Pro Bowl-caliber campaign after being begged to play one more season. Even Favre has questioned that, repeatedly referring to last season as the best of his 19-year career and saying the offense set the bar almost impossibly high.
"I don't know if Brett can have as good a year as he did last year," an NFC executive said. "That was pretty special."
It doesn't help that Favre's favorite target, receiver Sidney Rice, will miss at least six games and almost surely more while recovering from last month's hip surgery. Without him, defenses don't have to respect the same speed threat on both sides of the field and may load the box more often to stop All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson.
Then there's the offensive line that fell below expectations last season and may be one bad play -- left tackle Bryant McKinnie's whiff in the Aug. 28 exhibition against Seattle comes to mind -- from a knockout punch on their soon to be 41-year-old quarterback.
"I think McKinnie is OK -- I don't think he's a top-level player," the NFC executive said. "I think he can be exposed. I think if you get an active, movement guy on (right tackle Phil) Loadholt, you can expose him. I know that they've been searching for help on their offensive line, whereas Green Bay had really tough decisions to make on their offensive line."
The Packers' line protects perhaps the NFL's best young quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, who has proven starting receivers in Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, a potential Pro Bowl tight end in Jermichael Finley and a solid -- though not elite -- back in Ryan Grant.
That group helped Green Bay lead the league in yards (406 per game), passing yards (296) and points (123) in four exhibition games, including a 28-point spurt in one half against the AFC champion Indianapolis Colts' starting defense. Rodgers posted a 141.2 passer rating.
The Vikings' first string scored one preseason touchdown, and that was set up by a 73-yard kickoff return. Favre's passer rating was 54.6 in nine series.
"Everybody's jumping on this Green Bay bandwagon right now," an NFC scout said. "I think everybody thinks Aaron's coming into his own. Those receivers are really strong."
On defense, it may be a toss-up. The Vikings have an extremely talented defensive line -- "the best eight in the league right now," the NFC executive said -- while the Packers are better on the back end, led by cornerback Charles Woodson and free safety Nick Collins.
Residual effects of the Vikings' offseason drama -- Favre's late arrival, Rice's delayed surgery, Peterson's minicamp absence, playmaker Percy Harvin's protracted migraine problems -- also may have contributed to the perception the Packers are the safer bet.
"Talent-wise, I think Minnesota is stronger," the NFC scout said, "but team-wise, I think Green Bay is still a little bit better right now."
The Chicago Bears were one of few big spenders in free agency -- they guaranteed $55 million to three veterans, including $42 million to pass rusher Julius Peppers -- but scouts don't see them as a factor in this race.
"It's basically the Packers and the Vikings, draw a line, and then it's the Bears and the Lions," the AFC personnel director said.
In fact, there is a growing belief that Detroit, which visits Chicago in Week 1, may send the Bears to the bottom of the division.
"I'm building a team with my line, and that's where I'm really concerned with (the Bears) is that offensive line and how they're going to be able to hold that together," the NFC scout said.
"Obviously, the defensive line -- they've done a nice job with Peppers, but you've got a very small window there. So, you better click, you better hit on all cylinders. It's a tough road to hoe in that division, because I think both Green Bay and Minnesota are very good personnel-wise, and to be honest, Detroit has really done a good job in this offseason."
Age always factors into any NFL personnel debate. So, it's no surprise scouts aren't as keen on the Bears, who lack ascending young players on defense, or the Vikings, who have 14 contributors age 30 or over.
But for their part, the Vikings don't seem to be buying the conjectural renovation of the division's upper crust.
"That's just somebody's opinion, basically," McKinnie said. "Still got to get out there and play these games."
Said cornerback Cedric Griffin, "We're the top dog right now. Until the Packers or Chicago or the Lions come knock us off, we're not going to look at it any different."
The journey begins in New Orleans -- the first of three prime-time road games against 2009 playoff teams that highlight a rather daunting schedule.
Of the 53 players on the active roster for the Vikings' last trip to the Superdome, 43 (81.1%) could suit up on Thursday night. Rice is the only returning starter who definitely won't play.
The line on Thursday's game has shifted gradually toward the Saints, who as of Wednesday evening were up to six-point favorites -- another sign more and more people outside the locker room are starting to bet against the Vikings.
Whether popular opinion ends up being a good gamble is anyone's guess.
"You're not going to know until the lights turn on," Vikings linebacker Chad Greenway said. "That's the way it is every year. But I think we have a veteran group, which I think (means) you can count on some consistency and expect what you're going to get every week. You never really know that until you go out there and play. We have a tough schedule, some tough road games, and that's going to really bring out the character."
