Wolfson: Nine Big Ten wins would justify extension for Tubby Smith

On a recent Friday night episode of "This Week in Golden Gopher Sports" on 1500 ESPN, "U" athletic director Joel Maturi said contract extension talks with Tubby Smith are on a prolonged hiatus.

That contradicts what Smith's attorney, Ricky Lefft, told the Star Tribune in March, when he was asked if a deal would be done prior to the season. His response was: "Absolutely."

Smith's contract runs through the 2013-2014 season, earning him approximately $1.8 million per year. The word was the two sides were close on a five-year, $10 million extension.

So, why the snag?

It's definitely not the money. It might have to do with the lack of movement on a practice facility. It should have something to do with performance.

Smith was two injuries -- Al Nolen and Mo Walker -- from likely becoming the first coach to take the Gophers to three consecutive NCAA tournaments.

But last year spiraled downward after the injuries, as the Gophers lost 10 of their last 11 games. That stench brought Smith's four-year Big Ten record to 32-40.

While the program is in a lot better shape than when Smith took it over, frankly, more is expected. As the highest-paid state employee and the fourth-highest paid coach in the Big Ten, an NCAA win, or two, by the fifth year is a realistic expectation.

"I believe they can be an NCAA tournament team," North Dakota State coach Saul Phillips said following his team's four-point loss at The Barn on Thursday. "I believe it in my heart."

Coachspeak, or not, that should be the threshold for any Smith extension.

As of Thursday night, the Gophers had a No. 19 national ranking in the RPI computer standings. The Big Ten is the top-ranked conference, which means a 9-9 record should guarantee entry into the Big Dance.

These next 18 games are what Smith's contractual status should be based upon. Even without Trevor Mbakwe, who was a lock to be on the All-Big Ten team, nine wins is attainable. They get Ohio State, Michigan, and Purdue only once each. Iowa twice, Nebraska twice and Penn State once should ensure, at minimum, four victories.

"We're OK" heading into Big Ten play, Smith said after Thursday's game. "After tonight, we need to play better. ... We won't have nine days off again."

Guard Julian Welch, whom the sparse crowd jumped on too heavily after eight consecutive solid performances, struggled mightily. Maybe it was the layoff for finals, or maybe not.

"It was North Dakota State," Smith said.

Welch's biggest mistake was doubling-down to help Ralph Sampson III, whose offensive player was 4 inches shorter, with 3 minutes left. It allowed the Bison's Lawrence Alexander an opportunity to make a wide open 3-pointer that would've put them into the lead.

"It was a poor decision to double, yes," Smith said.

What the Gophers can't do against the first- and second-tier conference teams -- Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State and Northwestern -- is settle for so many jump shots without feeding the ball inside first.

On 12 of the Gophers' first 14 possessions, they either turned it over or settled for long shots without going inside to Sampson first. A capable passer without Mbakwe, the offense should feed through him.

Not shocking, the Gophers trailed 14-2 after 7 minutes. They can overcome that deficit against North Dakota State. They won't against the aforementioned Big Ten teams.

Go 9-9 or better, and the five-year extension is justifiable. This is when we'll really find out how good Smith and his staff are at Minnesota.

A hall of fame coach, Smith's best days are long in the past. Let's see if he can change that perception in the next two months.

To his credit, since Mbakwe's injury, Smith has gotten the team to play as hard as I've seen in four-plus years. Win six or fewer in the Big Ten, and let the two remaining years stand.

Apologists will cite recruiting, but Smith beat out Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Nebraska for Wally Ellenson and Arkansas, Clemson and Marquette for Charles Buggs.

"We're a mentally tough team," said point guard Maverick Ahanmisi, who was the Gophers' best player against the Bison. "We know how to stay calm."

Let's see it starting on Tuesday at Illinois -- a winnable game -- and have it continue through early March.