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Wetmore’s 25-man roster projection: Still plenty of guesswork among Twins pitchers

Oct 1, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton (center) receives congratulations from left fielder Eddie Rosario (right) after scoring during the fourth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

FORT MYERS, Fla. — Twins pitchers and catchers had their first group workout Wednesday in southwest Florida. Even now that the proceedings are underway, there remains a wealth of talent available on the free agent market. And likewise, plenty of unanswered questions among candidates for the Twins’ opening day 25-man roster.

Typically the date that a free agent is looking to find his new home is around the holidays or the new year. This time around those free agents are meeting for their own spring training in Bradenton because those soft deadlines have come and gone without significant signings for starting pitchers and position players on the open market.

So, with the very obvious caveat that this roster projection would look different if the Twins trade for Chris Archer or sign Alex Cobb tomorrow, let’s take a look at the current 25-man roster outlook.

Position players

Starters (9)

C: Jason Castro
1B: Joe Mauer
2B: Brian Dozier
SS: Jorge Polanco
3B: Miguel Sano
LF: Eddie Rosario
CF: Byron Buxton
RF: Max Kepler
DH: Robbie Grossman

I don’t see any big controversies here. The infield is fairly set, assuming Sano is not suspended for an extended period of time and that he’s physically healthy enough to begin the season as the third baseman. Rosario and Buxton arrived at the plate last year, while Kepler still struggled to take that next step forward. More on him later, because I don’t get the sense that the Twins are ready to give up on him as a solid everyday player. More of Grossman in a moment, too, since I sometimes find myself in the minority by considering him a valuable offensive threat.

Bench (4)

C: Mitch Garver
IF: Eduardo Escobar
IF: Ehire Adrianza
1B/DH: Kennys Vargas

Zack Granite should be a candidate to make the club out of spring training. He’d add a more versatile skill set than Vargas.

I expect that the Twins will open the season with 4 starters in their rotation, which in turn allows for an extra bench player or an extra reliever. If manager Paul Molitor feels like he has enough bench versatility to cover the plausible scenarios then the Twins might favor the extra reliever. As far as the bench goes, they’ll need a catcher and at least one infielder to move around. I picked Garver because I sense that the Twins want him to take hold of the job. Free agent Jonathan Lucroy is still out there hunting for a job, but there’s been no indication that the Twins would consider that a fit right now.

It’s kind of an awkward construction if Robbie Grossman is your fourth outfielder and Kennys Vargas is a position-less bench hitter. That’s not maximizing the value of roster space, but it might be the best way to play the cards that the Twins have in their hand. For one thing, Vargas is in his last chance with the organization as a guy who’s out of options and has yet to prove that he needs to be included on the roster. He has power but he’s been inconsistent and he doesn’t hit so well that you can easily overlook the fact that he’s not a good fielder. The first base/DH types that can hit are readily available in baseball today, and this would be a good spring for Vargas to showcase that he can be more than that type of power bench bat.

Grossman is not a great fielder, but I think he still gets overlooked as a good offensive players who knows his strike zone, draws walks and makes life difficult for opposing pitchers. He’s not a classic DH but I think he’s the best hitter on the roster that doesn’t have a starting spot locked up somewhere else; Grossman ranked fifth among Twins hitters in Weighted On-Base Average last year (.329), behind Dozier, Sano, Mauer and Rosario. (Grossman was a better hitter than Max Kepler last year, for example, although Kepler’s glove could makes up the difference the Twins’ book. On that note, maybe the Twins should find an outfielder or DH that could bat against lefties, which would allow them to sit Kepler in favor of Grossman in right field on those days.)

Starting pitchers (4)

J.O. Berrios
Kyle Gibson
Adalberto Mejia
Phil Hughes

The starting staff won’t actually need a fifth starter until April 11. Bet on them using that extra roster spot to their advantage, rather than carrying a fifth man in the rotation, unused, through the first two weeks of the year. They’ll need 5 eventually, and as a position group, this unit is easily the projection in which I’m least confident. In fact, I fully expect that these four will not represent the opening day rotation for the Twins. This is just how I’d draw it up right now in mid-February before the Twins have made their splash to add another starting pitcher.

Rather than thinking about the starting rotation in terms of the 5 best guys, I think it’s more helpful to think of the starting rotation as a depth chart that runs 8, 9 or 10 pitchers deep. From that perspective, the Twins have some work to do.

A total of 16 pitchers started games for the Twins last year, which is a bad sign. Although in fairness 85% of those starts came from 6 guys: Ervin Santana, J.O. Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Adalberto Mejia, Bartolo Colon and Hector Santiago. That figure jumps to 90% when you include Phil Hughes.

Some things will fall off course throughout the year. That happened last year at many turns and the Twins asked guys like Adam Wilk and Tim Melville to make starts out of nowhere. I won’t pretend to be able to project every pitcher that will get a start this year, but we should keep this “usable depth” idea in mind when we look at a starting rotation projection.

Here’s one way to look at the depth chart, accounting for Ervin Santana’s recovery from surgery:

J.O. Berrios
Ervin Santana
Kyle Gibson
Adalberto Mejia
Trevor May
Phil Hughes
Dietrich Enns
Stephen Gonsalves
Fernando Romero
Tyler Duffey
Aaron Slegers
Felix Jorge
Zack Littell

Eventually Michael Pineda will find his way onto this list, but probably not until next year.

Relievers (8)

Closer:

Fernando Rodney

Setup:

Addison Reed
Trevor Hildenberger

Lefty:

Taylor Rogers
Zach Duke

After that I see a total grab bag of unproven but intriguing hurlers. Start with the perennial breakout candidate Ryan Pressly. If he puts it all together this year then he’s a real valuable weapon for Molitor out of the bullpen. The first part of that sentence is just as important – probably more important – than the second part. How many times have the Twins reported to spring training and had that question hanging over the roster – if Pressly puts it together. It’s prove-it time for the guy with some of the best raw stuff in camp.

Here’s a list of guys I’m considering, and since this is a roster projection, I’ve bolded my somewhat random guesses over who will make the final cut.

Alan Busenitz
Ryan Pressly
J.T. Chargois
Gabriel Moya (LHP)
Tyler Kinley (Rule 5)
Jake Reed
John Curtiss
Lewis Thorpe (LHP)

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  • Leon Engelun

    Looks like whole bunch of guys are gonna have to step up this year.

  • fritzdahmus

    My Prediction:
    Everyone in the AL Central is a 65-75 win team, except for the 95-win Indians. So, even the average roster displayed here will get the Twins to 84 wins and another wild card….and another loss out east in the Wild Card Game.

  • Howard Markose

    I am with you on everything except the grab bag of relievers after Rodney, Reed, Hildenberger, Rogers and Duke. I think that we will see Ryan Pressly and two Tylers (Kinley and Duffey). Duffey will be the long man when the Twins have a chance to win and Kinley will be available in late innings of blow-outs (both ways). We have some good minor league depth (Busenitz, Chargois, Moya and Curtiss – all of whom showed some significant stuff last year), and I dare say that we will certainly have to dip into it during the season!





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Previous Story What should Twins give up for Chris Archer? (ep. 159) Next Story Wetmore: Think free agents are sweating the start of spring training? Twins ought to be uneasy, too